Michael Bloomberg said in the Democratic debate that India is a “bigger problem” than China when it comes to the worst contributors to climate change, despite the fact that China is by far the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide.
China emitted about 9,302 metric tons of carbon in 2017, the most recent year for which the International Energy Agency has data, while India emitted 2,162 metric tons that year.
“In all fairness, China has slowed down,” Bloomberg said Wednesday night during his first appearance at a presidential debate. “It’s India that is an even bigger problem. But it is an enormous problem. Nobody’s doing anything about it.”
Bloomberg’s move to deflect blame from China was a marked contrast to other candidates, who have taken a tougher line and suggested the United States should use tools such as carbon import tariffs to force Beijing to cut emissions.
“You’re not going to go to war with them,” Bloomberg said of China. “What you have to do is convince the Chinese that it is in their interest [to reduce emissions], as well. Their people are going to die [from climate change] just as our people are going to die. And we’ll work together.”
Joe Biden, by contrast, warned China during the debate that, “If you continue, you will suffer severe consequences because the rest of the word will impose tariffs on everything you’re selling.”
Analysts were skeptical of Bloomberg’s claim that China is a secondary problem to India.
“Bloomberg seemed either uninformed or more likely an apologist for Chinese emissions by falsely claiming India was a bigger problem, perhaps because he was on the defensive about his business dealings in China,” said Paul Bledsoe, a former Clinton White House climate adviser and lecturer at American University’s Center for Environmental Policy.
Bledsoe noted that China’s emissions, representing 30% of the world’s emissions, are nearly double those of the U.S. and have begun rising during the Trump administration after falling between 2014 and 2016. In 2019, China’s carbon emissions were expected to rise by 2.6%, according to the Global Carbon Project.
Coal use in China, meanwhile, won’t plateau until 2022. In 2024, coal will still power 59% of China’s electric sector, according to recent projections from the IEA. Coal is the largest contributor to rising carbon emissions, which are driving global climate change.
“Global emissions cannot realistically fall until Chinese emissions begin to fall,” Bledsoe said.
Nat Keohane, vice president for international climate at the Environmental Defense Fund, said that Bloomberg was right to say India is vital to addressing climate change. Coal demand in India is expected to grow by more than that of any other country through 2024 in absolute terms, according to the IEA, even as power generation from renewable energy sources is forecast to expand strongly. India’s carbon emissions have grown about 5% per year over the last decade, but growth was expected to be weaker in 2019 at 1.8%, the Global Carbon Project reported.
“If it follows the same high-carbon development path as the West and China have taken, then it could eventually become the world’s largest emitter and even swamp all the gains made elsewhere,” Keohane said of India.
However, India’s major contribution to climate change would happen in the future. It’s per capita emissions are one-tenth those of the U.S., he said.
“So the two countries face fundamentally different challenges,” Keohane said. “China’s challenge is to reduce its emissions: it needs to reach a peak as soon as possible and drive emissions down sharply. India’s challenge, in contrast, is about how to grow its economy without the rapid rise in emissions we’ve seen elsewhere.”
