ARLINGTON, Virginia -- The plots uncovered recently to abduct and possibly assassinate Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam and to kill law enforcement officials and storm the Michigan State Capitol, and a separate plot that may have targeted Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, should be shocking to all Americans. They are also stark reminders that the 2020 election could be subject not just to attempts to prevent the counting of all votes, but even assaults by radical militias on state capitols and voting places, as the FBI has warned.
President Donald Trump has sought to falsely undermine confidence in election procedures, urged supporters to stalk polling places, and encouraged radical groups. During the April armed militia protests in Michigan, Trump tweeted “LIBERATE MICHIGAN” and two other states that have Democratic governors, calling on his followers “to save your great 2nd Amendment,” which he claimed was “under siege.”
Fortunately, the states, not the president, have the responsibility and authority for counting and reporting votes. This means the nation’s governors have the crucial role.
Given the unprecedented scale of absentee and mail-in voting this year, many states, including the “swing states” of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, will likely not have full election results for several days after Nov. 3. In Ohio, it could take longer. The Buckeye State accepts mail-in ballots postmarked all the way to Nov. 2, then allows mail-in ballots to be received and counted up until ten days after Election Day. This year, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose has moved up by six days the deadline for county boards of elections to certify final results -- to Nov. 18.
So governors, including Ohio’s Mike DeWine, must inform their citizens about each state’s vote tabulation process now, well ahead of Election Day, to prevent misunderstanding of voting and counting procedures and timelines. And they must be absolutely clear that any interference at voting places, with ballot counts, or threats and attempts at violence will not be tolerated.
But governors should also recognize that the surge of mail-in voting could create confusion on election night that extremists may try to exploit. Reports suggest that far more Democrats than Republicans are voting by mail this year, while more Republicans may cast ballots in person on Election day, causing a potential “blue shift” in final results.
This could give the impression on election night that Trump and other Republicans will win close state races, even though once all mail-in votes are eventually counted, Biden and other Democrats might be the actual winners. This phenomenon has been termed the “red mirage.”
This matters because a running New York Times tally shows that, as of Saturday, more than 86 million mail-in ballots have been requested or sent to voters -- by far the most in history -- and more than 56 million ballots have been cast, with more than a week to go to Election Day.
In fact, states are not required or expected to tabulate all votes on election night. For states with the highest historic levels of mail-in voting, results are normally counted within a week. States with low levels of mail-in ballots usually have results within 24 hours.
Yet with Trump and his allies falsely denigrating the reliability of mail-in voting, a “red mirage” situation on election night could play into a dangerous narrative about election results, increasing the potential for disruptions as counts take place in the days after Nov. 3. Trump is already laying the groundwork for such a narrative, spuriously claiming he can only lose through a “stolen” election, despite his deficits in key state polls.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security this month issued a major report citing white supremacist extremist groups like those in Michigan as “the most persistent and lethal threat” facing our nation. Gov. Whitmer herself noted these groups should be properly termed “domestic terrorist organizations.”
Governors must put everyone, including their own state officials, on notice that attempts to inhibit or disturb the democratic exercise of the free ballot will not be tolerated. Such communications should not be provocative, but instead calm and deliberate, stressing the goal of counting every vote safely and fairly. But governors must also prevent election disruptions and political violence. After all, the very heart of our democracy is at stake.
Paul Bledsoe, a Shaker Heights native now residing in Arlington, Virginia, is strategic advisor at the Progressive Policy Institute. He served as a staff member in the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate and Clinton White House.
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