Republicans in Congress are poised to block some of President-elect Joe Biden’s most aggressive climate policies, such as a carbon tax or clean energy mandate, if Mitch McConnell keeps control of the Senate, but they are willing to support smaller measures that could garner bipartisan support.
Congressional Republican leaders over the past few years have sought to distinguish themselves from President Trump by declaring climate change a problem and proposing legislation to promote innovation in nuclear energy and technologies that capture emissions from fossil fuels.
But despite Trump’s loss, Republicans are unlikely to cooperate on legislation that would enable Biden to reach his goals of achieving net-zero emissions across the economy by 2050 and using carbon-free power by 2035.
“I don’t think you will see a big change in our position,” said Rep. Garret Graves of Louisiana, the top Republican on the House’s special climate change committee.
“If you want to get something done, the way to do it is to take this in smaller chunks. If you want to carry some ‘Green New Deal’ mantle, it goes absolutely nowhere,” Graves told the Washington Examiner.
Center-right groups and economists have hoped that Republicans could embrace carbon pricing once Trump was out of office since it would reorient the market to support clean energy without mandating it.
“There are some more climate-minded Republican senators that with elections being in the rearview mirror, they can get a bit more into the nitty-gritty of the carbon pricing issue,” said former Rep. Ryan Costello of Pennsylvania, a centrist Republican who retired in 2018.
Costello is now managing director of the Americans for Carbon Dividends, the advocacy organization of the Climate Leadership Council, a group led by former Republican secretaries of state, James Baker III and George Shultz. The group is lobbying Congress to support a carbon tax plan that distributes the revenue to taxpayers.
But Republicans who gained seats in the Democratic-controlled House and are expecting to keep the Senate see little incentive to support policies that could upset their fossil fuel-dependent states or districts.
GOP Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, the chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, remains “strongly opposed to carbon taxes.” Barrasso is expected to chair the Senate Energy Committee in 2021, replacing Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.
“He believes free market innovation, not government taxation or regulation is the best way to address climate change,” Mike Danylak, a spokesman for Barrasso, told the Washington Examiner.
Biden has not explicitly endorsed a carbon tax, as Democrats have united around an agenda that would phase out fossil fuels from the electricity sector through mandates while increasing federal spending on renewable technologies.
To do that, Biden would likely need to pass a clean electricity standard, which requires utilities to obtain an increasing amount of power from renewable and zero-carbon energy sources, such as wind, solar, hydropower, and nuclear.
More than half of the states, some of them Republican-led, have adopted clean electricity standards or more restrictive renewable portfolio standards.
But Republicans in Congress are unlikely to support clean electricity standards.
“You can have all the mandates and emissions standards in the world, but if you don’t have the technologies to achieve them, you have paper tigers,” Rep. Tom Reed of New York, a centrist Republican, told the Washington Examiner.
Reed said he is “open-minded” to the carbon tax approach favored by the Climate Leadership Council, a concept that has been endorsed by big oil and gas companies, including Exxon Mobil, BP, ConocoPhillips, and Shell.
“The conversation about a carbon tax and dividend approach is one we have not said no too and can be a part of the conversation, but that is not priority from a Republican perspective,” Reed said. “You lead with innovation.”
Reading the political tea leaves
Republicans remain opposed to any policies that would reduce fossil fuel use, a stance they feel was rewarded by the results of House races in oil and gas districts in which incumbent Democrats lost after struggling to disassociate from Biden’s plans to transition to clean energy.
“If you think you can kill the oil and gas industry, that will have political consequences,” Reed said.
Kevin Book, managing director of research at ClearView Energy, said he expects congressional Republicans and Democrats to be more divided on climate change legislation in a Biden administration. Most Republicans have refused to acknowledge Biden’s win as Trump pursues recounts.
“A tribal post-election fight seems likely to strengthen ideological alignments,” Book said. “A big fight could push the GOP closer to being the party of fossil fuels and the Democrats closer to being the party of clean transition.”
Frank Maisano, an energy lobbyist with Bracewell, also predicted Republicans would not be allies of Biden’s climate agenda in a divided government.
“Had you had a Democratic sweep, you would see coalescing of industry around a moderate position,” Maisano said. “I don’t see a lot of change there because of where the election results panned out.”
Business stance is key
Shane Skelton, a Republican energy consultant and former staffer for House Speaker Paul Ryan, said Biden would have an easier time than former President Barack Obama convincing Republicans to support climate legislation. Obama, with Biden as his vice president, failed to pass cap-and-trade carbon pricing legislation.
“Biden’s odds are light years better than Obama’s were, but I would not put them above 50,” Skelton said.
But Skelton said Republicans are unlikely to back a carbon tax or clean electricity standard unless those policies are endorsed by business and energy lobby groups such as the Chamber of Commerce and Edison Electric Institute, which represents utilities. Business groups, Skelton suggested, might move to support such legislation as an alternative to aggressive regulations from a Biden administration.
“Business will have to do the heavy lifting,” Skelton said. “If they sit on the sidelines, it’s easier for Republicans to campaign against these ‘quote-unquote’ crazy Democrats who want to give you the Green New Deal.”
Marty Durbin, president of the Chamber of Commerce’s Global Energy Institute, said the group is not prepared to support a carbon tax or mandate, although it won’t “rule anything out.”
“It’s OK to have ambitions, goals, and targets, but our focus is on innovation and technology,” Durbin told the Washington Examiner, adding the chamber prefers a legislative solution to a regulatory one. Durbin also said the chamber supports Biden’s plan to reenter the Paris agreement that Trump rejected.
Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor of Florida, the chairman of the special House climate committee, predicted Republicans will be motivated to be cooperative as more companies set their own emissions reduction targets, despite the position of lobbying groups.
“The business community is going to press Republican senators to move, understanding fundamentally this is an economic issue for America,” Castor told the Washington Examiner. “It’s not going to be enough to just tread water.”
‘Under the radar’ opportunities
Lawmakers, lobbyists, and analysts expect McConnell to work with Biden on at least some smaller climate measures, as Republicans face a less friendly Senate map in 2022, when dozens of GOP senators are up for reelection.
“Republicans are in big danger of losing their majority,” said Paul Bledsoe, an adviser with the Progressive Policy Institute and former climate aide in the Clinton administration. “McConnell will face big pressure to have actual achievements and not just attempt to stymie Biden.”
Potential areas of agreement include clean energy spending in a pandemic-related stimulus package, infrastructure investments, including transmission lines for renewables and chargers for electric vehicles, extensions of solar and wind tax credits, and additional subsidies for battery storage, and legislation phasing down hydrofluorocarbons, a potent pollutant used in cooling systems.
“There are going to be opportunities here that fly under the radar,” Reed said.
