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WHAT THE US-CHINA AGREEMENT IS MISSING: The new agreement between the U.S. and China to collaborate on curbing climate change by enhancing action reducing emissions this decade lacks concrete pledges, emissions targets, or timeframes.
“There isn’t much new here,” Jane Nakano, a senior fellow in the Energy Security & Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Josh.
Biden administration climate envoy John Kerry failed to persuade China to include a commitment to set a specific year this decade by which Beijing will stop increasing its world-leading emissions.
In a press conference in Glasgow touting the agreement, Kerry said he hopes it “will become evident” to China that it can begin reducing its emissions “much sooner” than its current pledge of before 2030. Kerry even said he believes China’s emissions might have peaked already, a projection analysts disagree with.
China’s emissions are expected to increase this year, Nakano said, given the recent resurgence of coal production and power generation the government ordered in response to an electricity shortage.
China, meanwhile, is resisting a push by COP26 organizers for countries to agree to phase out coal worldwide and speed up their plans to submit new, stronger emissions targets, Bloomberg reports this morning.
“Having the world’s two largest emitters more cooperative is important,” said Paul Bledsoe, a former Clinton White House climate change adviser, now with the Progressive Policy Institute. “But to be most meaningful in limiting near-term temperatures, climate impacts and preventing runaway warming, the agreement must include China reducing CO2 and methane as soon as possible this decade, not just long-term actions,” Bledsoe told Josh.
Methane moves are less than meets the eye: China’s agreeing as part of the deal to create a “comprehensive national action plan” to address methane emissions, which Kerry touted as a breakthrough, is actually just a “small step” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
China’s updated emissions pledge, or NDC, submitted to the U.N. ahead of COP26 already promised it would develop an action plan on non-CO2 greenhouse gases, including methane.
China, the world’s largest methane emitter, has also not joined on to the global pledge of more than 100 countries launched by the U.S. and Europe vowing to cut methane emissions 30% by 2030.
“The most that can be said about it is that a dedicated action plan creates the expectation of setting a measurable target,” to reduce methane emissions, Myllyvirta told Josh.
Details may not be the point: Rather than focusing on what it doesn’t say, Kerry emphasized the significance of the U.S. and China — the two largest emitters — coming together to take more action this decade at a time when the countries’ relations are strained in other arenas.
That possibility seemed doubtful just days ago when President Joe Biden declared China’s President Xi Jinping made a “big mistake” not showing up to COP26.
“The fact the two countries could find a way to release a joint statement at a time when the bilateral relationship is so strained demonstrates that these two major emitters can still work together,” said Kelly Sims Gallagher, who directs the Climate Policy Lab at the Fletcher School at Tufts University.
China plays the expectations game: The country’s leaders have defended their reluctance to join their peers in boosting emissions targets by arguing the U.S. is making promises it can’t keep.
“China is different. Whenever we make commitments, we take real actions and honor our commitments 100 percent,” said China’s climate change envoy, Xie Zhenhua, in announcing the agreement with the U.S.
Gallagher predicted China would outperform the targets it set on paper in its updated NDC, which has more concrete numbers and commitments than the U.S.-China joint statement.
In its update, China said it would begin to phase down its coal use starting in 2026, while maintaining its pledge to peak emissions before the end of the decade.
“I do think that China will peak well ahead of 2030,” Gallagher told Josh.
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EPA VOWS TOUGHER EMISSIONS RULES: The EPA is promising to finalize more aggressive rules for regulating emissions from cars and trucks, along with tighter limits on methane from oil and gas.
Environmentalists had criticized the Biden administration’s fuel economy standards released over the summer as being too weak in that they closely follow Obama-era rules, which critics viewed as insufficient given that transportation continues to be the largest source of U.S. emissions.
Biden’s proposed standards require that automakers achieve fuel economy of 52 miles per gallon by 2026, slightly higher than Obama administration regulation targeting 51 miles per gallon by 2025.
EPA administrator Michael Regan told Bloomberg at COP26 yesterday that “what we finalize will be much more aggressive and much more comprehensive.”
Regan acknowledged EPA’s approach is a departure from the past when administrations generally outline ambitious initial draft rules before issuing final regulations that stay pretty consistent.
Methane rules could cover flaring: Regan said he anticipated a similar result for EPA’s plan released last week to regulate methane emissions from new and existing oil and gas sources, saying the agency would aim for “the most stringent final rule possible that is legally durable, legally sound and technologically feasible.”
Joseph Goffman, who leads EPA’s Office of Air and Radiation, suggested during an event this morning in Glasgow hosted by the Environmental Defense Fund that the agency could look to require the phase out of routine flaring, which the draft rules stopped short of doing.
He said the updated rules would be “extensive and ambitious.”
BONUS…POWER PLANT RULES COMING DESPITE SCOTUS CASE: EPA is also not backing down on developing new emissions limit for power plants, after the Supreme Court’s recent decision to hear arguments in a suit seeking to limit the agency’s legal authority in that realm.
Even if EPA is forced to pursue pollution limits only “inside the fence line,” meaning reducing emissions at individual plants, Regan said there are “enormous opportunities,” including with using renewable power and implementing efficiency upgrades at the sites themselves.
“There are opportunities to generate electricity inside the fence line and opportunities to save energy inside the fence line that probably were not cost effective or available 10 years ago,” Regan told Bloomberg.
BIDEN TO SIGN INFRASTRUCTURE BILL AS AGENCIES TOUT CLIMATE MEASURES: Biden will sign the bipartisan infrastructure bill on Monday at a White House ceremony with lawmakers from both parties and other stakeholders. But it won’t mark the end of the administration’s efforts to sell the new law to the American people as he promises to hit the road in the coming weeks.
In the meantime, agencies have been holding press calls this week touting aspects of the bill, including the Department of Energy yesterday, which sought to show how the legislation marks a big step in the fight against climate change.
Tarik Shah, DOE’s chief of staff, told reporters the infrastructure deal includes more than $62 billion to boost clean energy, which he called the single largest investment in the agency since its founding.
Where emissions cuts come from: We explained earlier this week how the bill’s main value is it can facilitate deployment of more clean energy by enabling the buildout of infrastructure like transmission lines to deliver wind and solar power and pipelines to transport captured carbon dioxide.
It also fully funds more than a dozen clean energy demonstration projects originally authorized under the Energy Act of 2020 approved at the end of last year, including for long-duration energy storage, advanced nuclear reactors, carbon capture, and direct air capture. While these technologies are farther out from being widely commercialized, DOE officials said the bill would still contribute to emissions reductions this decade to help meet Biden’s climate targets for 2030.
Carla Frisch, a senior DOE official, in response to a question from Josh, said that along with funding demonstration projects, the bill makes investments in energy efficiency, renewables, and existing clean energy sources such as nuclear plants “that will be critical to achieving our climate goals.”
COMMERCE REJECTS SOLAR TARIFF PETITIONS: The Commerce Department rejected a series of petitions yesterday that sought the imposition of circumvention tariffs on solar cell and module imports from Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand, delivering a big win for U.S. firms reliant on those products for building panels.
The department said in its rejection letter that the petitioning American Solar Manufacturers Against Chinese Circumvention failed to meet threshold requirements and rejected its claim that petitioners must remain anonymous to avoid retaliation.
Commerce said anonymity “hampers interested parties from fully commenting on the requests for circumvention inquiries” and that it “may hamper them from commenting on certain issues that could arise if Commerce were to initiate circumvention inquiries.”
The Solar Energy Industry Association, which has argued that even the consideration of the petitions would result in significant job loss, hailed Commerce’s decision as “major victory” that provides firms certainty to continue investing and hiring new workers.
The department said it would continue consideration of the anti-circumvention inquiry if petitioners respond within two business days and assent to be identified.
The petitioners’ counsel, Tim Brightbill, said they are reviewing Commerce’s letter and had no comment on the decision.
INDIA’S $1 TRILLION DEMAND: Indian officials are clarifying conditions that Prime Minister Narendra Modi set out at COP26 while the globe’s third-largest emitter looks to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070.
Modi announced the target last week, saying India expects wealthy nations to “make $1 trillion available as climate finance as soon as possible.” Bloomberg reports that officials say the condition is for $1 trillion to be provided to India alone by 2030, a number 10-fold larger than the $100 billion funding commitment advanced nations have planned to provide to developing ones.
OPEC OIL MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTS: In today’s updated monthly oil market assessment, OPEC lowered expectations for global demand through the end of the year, projecting growth at a rate of 5.7 million barrels per day through the end of the year, 160,000 barrels per day fewer than before.
The cartel said lower-than-anticipated demand from China and India during the third quarter were mainly responsible for the revision.
It also identified Canada, Russia, China, Norway, Brazil, and Guyana as the main drivers of global oil supply growth in 2021.
The Rundown
New York Times Rivian IPO is embraced by investors looking for another Tesla
Bloomberg Subaru unveils Its first all-electric SUV, developed with Toyota
Calendar
TUESDAY | NOV. 16
10:30 a.m. Rayburn 2123 The House Energy and Commerce Committee will hold a joint subcommittee hearing entitled “Securing America’s Future: Supply Chain Solutions for a Clean Energy Economy.”
THURSDAY | NOV. 18
10:00 a.m. House Natural Resources Committee Republicans will host a forum entitled “Supporting African Communities: Highlighting International Conservation Efforts Worldwide.”
